If the system is working, why am I losing money?
Just because we lost money doesn’t mean it was a bad bet.
You see, we follow a proven process. And we don’t waste our time with what could be the outcome.
Now, you may trade based on predictions of what will happen with biotech stocks. And maybe you’ll get lucky with a good outcome now and again.
But it’s a bad process that will leave you broke over the long term.
When you have a bad process, the odds are you’re going to have far more bad outcomes than good over time.
Think about playing blackjack…
Basic strategy says you shouldn’t ask for another card if you’re dealt a 17. If you follow that process, you’ll do well over the long haul.
Now, if the dealer pulls a 4, you’ll have won the hand with a 21. But you got lucky.
You won with a bad process. If you stick with that strategy over the long term, you’ll be a loser.
That’s what I mean when I talk about process versus outcome. You can’t make decisions based on what you want the outcome to be.
Bad processes can produce good outcomes on occasion. But the best long-term performers in trading all emphasize process over outcome.
Trend following is a time-tested, disciplined process specifically designed to bring about more gains than losses over the long run.
But that doesn’t mean all our trades will be winners.
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