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Our favorite tyrant is at it again. Hugo Chavez announced over the weekend that any foreigner who publicly criticizes him or the Venezuelan government will be expelled from the country without appeal.
“How long are we going to allow a person,” Chavez asked, “from any country in the world to come to our own house to say there's a dictatorship here, that the president is a tyrant, and nobody does anything about it?"
Hmmmn… at least he’s thinking clearly.
Good thing we’re reporting to you live from Vancouver this week, not Venezuela. Otherwise, we might find ourselves pokey with the other low-life bourgeois.
We’re in Vancouver to host our 8th annual Agora Financial Investment Symposium. If you weren’t able to join us, stay tuned… The 5 will keep you abreast of all the doings (if a little late on occasion). If you are here at the Fairmont and reading this, go to the hotel lobby and buy Ian a drink. He’ll tell you a joke.
The U.S. markets got taken out back to the woodshed on Friday. The Dow and S&P lost over 1% apiece. Jittery investors took “euphoric” profits from last week’s multiple highs. Subprime woes and a few poor earnings announcements helped them kick the habit.
Even the mighty Google stumbled. The company missed earnings for the second time since in went public in 2004. Unsuspecting investors sulked as if the toast landed butter side down. By Friday’s close, Google fell 5%.
Chinese traders were clearly unconcerned with the Google’s earnings. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen composites rose 4% on Friday. Chinese bank chiefs bumped interest rates up 0.27% to try to cool off their scorching market. We’re sure that extra 0.02% is really going to help…
Here’s a trend that might be worth watching. “For the second consecutive month,” reports the Free Market Investor’s Christopher Hancock. “China has been a net seller of U.S. securities.”
China sold a net $6.6 billion of U.S. securities in May, after selling $5.8 billion in April. This is the first back-to-back sales of securities in these quantities since January and February 2004. And is evidence China may be diversifying its more than $1,300 billion in foreign reserves.
“If this move proves to be more than a passing trend, it could put further pressure on the downward slide of the U.S. dollar,” warns Christopher. As if the dollar needed yet another weight attached to its ankle…
The dollar index sank to a 15-year low against a trade-weighted grab bag of the world’s major currencies on Friday. The dollar index -- which pits the dollar against the euro, yen, pound, loonie, Swiss franc and Swedish crown -- fell to its lowest point since 1992.
Last week, we warned that if the resistance level of 80 were broken on the index, there would be nowhere but down for the dollar to go. Today, it sits at 80.11… just a rat’s breath away from go time.
On Friday, too, the euro took back the penny it lost on Thursday and ended trading at $1.38. The good Queen’s currency is closing in on $2.06.
Gold rallied on the news. We suspected last week (link) that a few days above $670 might send gold up-and-away… and at $682 this morning, looks like we may be onto something.
“It’s noteworthy that gold and silver are absent from the multidecade milestones of late,” wrote our friend James Turk of goldmoney.com. A shrinking dollar index, euro and pound strength, crude oil’s push past $75, fantastic growth in the mining sector… all should have helped these precious metals to burst through the roof. What gives?
“We learned this past week that the Swiss National Bank sold 13.9 tonnes of gold in June,” Turk says, suggesting government intervention in the market. “But despite these price-capping efforts, both gold and silver had good gains last week, climbing 2.7% and 2.3%, respectively.
“Eventually, the market will overpower government efforts to cap gold's price. Gold and silver have yet to achieve the multidecade highs already seen by many commodities, but they will inevitably climb higher as the dollar makes new multidecade lows. Get ready for $700 gold.”
One-third of all the world's “project” finance is now taking place in the Middle East.
“Fueled by years of higher oil prices, the Middle East is flush with cash,” reports Chris Mayer. “Yet it is also attracting gobs of foreign investment. It is a heck of a potential market -- about half of the estimated 300 million people in the Middle East are under 20 years old. That’s a huge ‘coming of age’ population that will seek jobs, create businesses and consume.”
“It will be interesting to see how this plays out,” Chris writes. “The rise of the Middle East is also part of the Asian investment-scape. Specific investment opportunities for the typical investor look light at the moment. But there are a number of backdoor plays -- companies that have significant projects in the booming Middle East.”
Mr. Mayer will open a discussion on what he calls the “new Silk Road” -- the resurgence of trade between China, Southeast Asian, and the Middle East -- in his presentation tomorrow here in Vancouver. Stay tuned.
As if on cue, the Middle East officially became home to the world’s tallest building on Sunday. The Burj Dubai of the UAE surpassed Taiwan's 1,667-foot Taipei 101 over the weekend.
It ain’t pretty, but it’s a record
When complete, the Burj will tower 2,275 feet… easily the world’s biggest… and nearly twice as tall as the Empire State Building.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, a glut of condos has pushed Miami into the worst housing price decline in over 30 years. Downtown sales fell a whopping 50% in May.
“Remember the mantra ‘All real estate is local?’” asks Mike Shedlock in his latest dispatch. “Now that real estate generally sucks no matter where you go, we no longer hear that one. It's time for a new mantra. How about ‘All recessions are local?’”
It gets worse. Thirty-seven new high-rise condo buildings are still under development in Miami’s chic downtown strip. Despite all the drama, developers won’t stop building. “The wave of baby boomer retirees is gathering momentum, and the weaker dollar makes Florida seem like a bargain to Europeans,'' said David Denslow, an economist at the University of Florida, who should be fired immediately. “With any luck at all, that will sustain us.''
Heh.
“Why do we even bother investing in airport security?” asked a disgusted Greg Guenthner this morning:
The Phoenix Sky Harbor airport has come under intense scrutiny for allowing a 4½-hour window of surprisingly lax security… every night. Watching Good Morning America this morning, Gunner learned that when the airport is open but not flying planes, in the wee hours of the morning, anyone with an employee badge can enter the secure area without the intense search we’ve all come to know and love since Sept. 11.
“I guess the honor system has worked so far for them,” reports Gunner, “but probably not much longer. It doesn’t take much to get the housewives who watch GMA fired up. Who knows how many other airports have similar potential gaps? All of this is likely to boost airport security stocks this week.”
One of Gunner’s favorites is a nanocap that has been highlighted in a special report for those who subscribe to Bulletin Board Elite this week. “It has the potential to supply the replacement,” says Gunner “of the irritating trace detection, or ‘puffer’ booths many of us have had to walk through while at airport security.”
We’ve had an incredible response thus far to Gunner’s new service, Bulletin Board Elite… it’s already at 40% of its maximum allowable subscribers. Click here to get in before we shut the door.
“I caught sight of something in your writing today,” a reader comments. “I find that the wording of the survey question by Reuters and the reactions to the answers to be the real issue when it comes to ‘Peak Oil’ discussions.
“I agree with Mr. Kunstler that we associate the oil supply issue with ‘driving.’ The problem, as we see it, is not to stop driving, but finding the energy we need to keep doing it. Most Americans are not able to ‘curb’ their driving to any extent that would have real impact on energy consumption. We cannot simply drive x% less miles starting next Thursday and accomplish anything. We live in an infrastructure environment that requires supplies of ‘cheap’ and ‘flexible’ energy that are hard to comprehend.
“So here are the real questions:
“1. What will be the reaction of American people when they discover everyone is going to have to overhaul the way they live? Completely. [Panic.]
“2. What will be the reaction of government? Will it step aside realizing the best course of action is to let the free market make the best of what we have and work through the problem? [Ha, fat chance.]
“3. How do I protect myself and plan for those reactions? [Good question.]
“4. How do I profit from those reactions?” [Even better, we like the way you think.]”
Indeed, these are interesting times. And not to make light of them, but your questions are exactly the kinds of questions we’re asking here in Vancouver this week. James Howard Kunstler is our featured speaker on Wednesday morning, sandwiched in between Bill Bonner and Kevin Kerr. We’ll report to you firsthand what he says, and what reaction he draws from the audience… including video clips on our Web site.
Addison Wiggin,
The 5 Min. Forecast
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