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 U.S. markets finished up last week like an overweight housewife sitting down to enjoy a Black Russian for the Fourth of July holiday. So lazy in the heat, nothing of interest could possibly come of it. Over the course of an entire week, the Dow gained 3 points. The S&P gained less than a single point.
 Over the weekend, crude oil climbed past $70 per barrel for the first time since September 2006. Events in the world have assembled a tacitly bullish case for oil over the past few days. Here are just a few of the items we’re watching: Heightened U.S. consumption for the Fourth of July week; several thwarted terrorist attacks in the U.K.; unresolved Nigerian labor strikes; and riots in the streets of Tehran. More below…
 As we write this morning, on many of the same concerns, gold has jumped $6 in early trading.
 To the list of worries aiding both oil and gold, we should add an ailing dollar. Last week’s trading ended with the dollar at a one-month low versus the euro, at $1.35. The yen, pound sterling and Swiss franc all gained against the dollar last week. In this quarter alone, the greenback has fallen 1.4% against the euro, 7.5% versus the New Zealand dollar, 4.8% against the Australian dollar and 2% versus the British pound. The pound is sitting at a 26-year high against the dollar this morning.
 The Canuck buck hit 95.5 cents on Friday -- its highest level since Jimmy Carter was trying to ruin the U.S. economy. Rumors of the Canadian central bank raising interest rates as early as this month pushed the loonie to a 30-year high.
“Seems a good bet that commodity prices should go even higher and carry the Canadian dollar with them,” Chris Mayer reminds us. “If you are a U.S. dollar-based investor and have assets in Canada, this currency trend will only boost your returns.” Hmm… clever. And noteworthy.
 According to an unusual gauge of economic demand, the U.S. unemployment picture is a bit darker than the government would lead you to think. Our friend John Williams of Shadowstats.com points to the oft ignored but never maligned “help-wanted advertising index” -- a measurement of help-wanted postings from 50-odd newspapers across the country.
“May's help-wanted advertising index plummeted to 27 from 29 in April -- hitting 50-year lows,” John writes. “After allowing for the Internet's impact -- siphoning away business from the print media -- this renewed plunge in ‘help-wanted ads’ signals a sharp weakening in current economic activity. It could be a harbinger of weaker-than-expected June employment data due for release this Friday, July 6.”
When this index scored a 33 a year ago, the guv’mint said unemployment was 4.5%. Now, the index scores a 27, and “the man” says the unemployment rate hasn’t changed. Hmm…
 Farmers in the U.S. have planted an estimated 93 million acres of corn -- up 19% from last year and the most since 1944, says the U.S. Department of Agriculture. On Friday, it also released a bullish report on soybeans: Planting of that estrogen-heavy bean is down 15% from 2006 -- the lowest level since 1995.
 In a strange twist of fate, Iranians are chanting “Death to Ahmadinejad!” in the streets of Tehran.
What gives? The Iranian population has been enjoying 34-cents-per-gallon fuel for years. But beginning last week, the Iranian guv’mint put a gas-rationing program into place. Iran -- the world’s third-largest oil producer -- imports over 40% of its gasoline because its current refining capabilities… well… suck.
Iran’s understanding of market economics isn’t much better. As usual, a chart is worth a thousand words:
Our friend John Mauldin estimates that 15% of Iran’s GDP is spent keeping gas cheap. Ahmadinejad is stuck. If his gas-rationing program continues, there will be blood in the streets. If he abandons the ration and drops subsidies, there will be blood in the streets.
 At the current rate, Iran will run out of oil in the next 10-15 years. But Iran’s problem doesn’t have anything to do with Peak Oil. Rather, it’s the knuckleheads who run the government.
This one, for example: "If the government does not control the consumption of oil products in Iran,” says Iran’s oil minister, Mohammed Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian, “and at the same time, if the projects for increasing the capacity of the oil and protection of the oil wells will not happen, within 10 years, there will not be any oil for export."
"Absent some change in Irani policy,” explains Roger Stern from Johns Hopkins University, just down the street here in Baltimore, “exports will decline to zero by 2014-2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran's problem.”
“I expect Iran to be the new friend of the U.S. sometime next decade,” writes Mauldin, “as the regime is not popular and the country is growing younger. I thought that the impetus would be the lack of freedom and knowledge of how the world is better off coming from the Internet, but it turns out that it may be a desire for more freedom combined with economic problems which help bring about regime change, much as in Russia last century.”
That or it’ll turn into an all-out oil war >>
 “Last week, you indicated that Brazil is on the verge of an upgrade to its creditworthiness,” wrote a curious reader.
“But in previous issues of The 5, you have opined that ‘emerging markets’ (which I assume you mean Brazil to be one of them) may get ‘hurt’ as a result of what you believe is the upward trend in interest rates worldwide, and the potential capital flight from the emerging markets.
“I am confused. Do you still believe that Brazil is a desirable market in which to invest, in light of the higher worldwide interest rates that you believe are on the horizon and the past experiences with capital flight from emerging markets when interest rates go up?”
For an answer, we turn to Christopher Hancock, who went “fishing” in Brazil recently: “It's a matter of relative interest rates,” he writes. “When talking emerging markets, most people focus on the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. Three of the four (excluding Brazil) have investment-grade credit ratings.
“It’s true, rising interest rates take money ‘out of the system.’ As the opportunity cost for holding money goes up, firms and households will hold less money and more interest-bearing financial assets. Higher rates also discourage lending, which slows economic activity. Investors assume earnings will decline; and consequently, stock prices fall.
“But Brazil is on the cusp of achieving the investment-grade rating. The central bank's short-term rate has come down from 19.75% a year in August 2005 to 12% today. And even at 12%, that's much, much higher than U.S., European or even Chinese standards.
“The cost of capital, the true driver behind real growth, decreases sharply when an issuer crosses into the I-grade club. So even if, let's say, the U.S. and Europe raise rates to 6-7%, that won't affect Brazil as much as if its internal rate drops to 6-8%. If Brazil can achieve that mark, that means its rates would have fallen from 20% risky emerging-market rates to more stable, industrialized rates in the matter of a couple of years. That's amazing, historic… and a great investment opportunity.”
Christopher is about to pull the trigger on a Brazilian paper company that owns a million acres of eucalyptus trees. By some freak of nature, Brazil is able to grow a tree from seedling to maturity in seven years -- half the rate of Australia. That’s a million acres of a rapidly renewing resource. The company is already so large that it consumes 5% of Brazil’s daily electricity output. If rates drop in Brazil, look for a housing boom… and for those eucalyptus trees to dramatically increase in value.
 “The F-150 driver had some interesting comments,” writes a truck lover of a different sort. “I don't know the nature of the chip on his shoulder, but it was interesting nonetheless. The thing is, if you really want to move a load, an F-150 is a little on the wimpy side. I'd be happy to come over and haul some mahogany for you with my ’90 C-3500 -- best truck I've ever owned. And I won't even be insulted if you're worried about scratching your Land Rover and sit on your butt in front of the computer the whole time. It's good to get a plug in for GMC right now too, with their recent woes. Trust me, this baby will get the job done. Of course, the commute is probably cost prohibitive. :)
“Now, about this Financial Reserve: I have a proposition for you. You say I have nothing to lose if I invest in a membership…
“How about you give the little guy a run at it? My portfolio is way too small to invest this sort of money. You're after the big guys, I know (or at least the bigger little guys). But how about we turn the situation around? You give me the Agora Financial Reserve and I'll put $5,000 of investments into it. After five years (or, if you prefer, a shorter time period) I'll split the profits with you, 50/50. This would be a truly win-win situation, in which you have absolutely nothing to lose, but everything to gain; especially if you're that confident in your services.
“Whether you take the bait or not, I'm enjoying the newsletters. I also appreciate the contrarian nature of most of the comments. We have the lemming tendency (also known as mob mentality) and need to watch out for it. Thanks for the sober reminders.”
Eh… we like the way you think. But umm, no. Imagine the logistics if we took up every offer we receive like this. We prefer the K.I.S.S. principle.
And besides, you won’t find a better deal than the Agora Financial Reserve anywhere in the financial industry. We publish institutional-grade investment research for a fraction of what similar Wall Street research firms charge per year. Our research is several tens of thousands of dollars less expensive than what our “soft-dollar” competitors are selling to the mainstream investment banks.
But we give you one huge additional advantage over them. Our research is entirely independent. Apart from key relationships with EverBank, for its unparalleled savings certificates, and Nick Bruyer, for his unfettered access to exclusive collectible coin deals, we answer to no one -- except you. With editors and analysts like Eric Fry, Chris Mayer, Kevin Kerr, Byron King, Dan Amoss, Christopher Hancock, Jonathan Kolber , Craig Walters, Steve Sarnoff, Greg Guenthner, Mike "Mish" Shedlock andBill Bonner… what you see is what you get. It’s an all-star team that produces some of the most forward-looking investment ideas in the business. And the team works for you.
All that, and for the next couple of days, we’re willing to give our work away for free… literally. It’s a “win-win,” as the cheesebags are wont to say.
Best regards,
Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast
P.S. Today is Monday, July 2. By midnight on Thursday, our best AF Reserve offer will close. You’ll never see this price again. If you don’t act now, you’ll miss out on five new services we have planned over the next 12 months. On the other hand, if you are interested in becoming a Reserve Member, now is the perfect time to ante up. Don’t wait >>
Think of the Reserve as our Independence Day gift to you.
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Monday. June 25, 2007: 
