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June 19, 2007 by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias

  • China's Back, Homebuilder's are Gloomy, Wall Street is Greasy, and More!
  • Shanghai, back on the bull… chart reveals roller coaster for investors
  • U.S. markets and the dollar put on a snoozefest
  • “Short selling” funds hit highs not seen since the first quarter of 2000
  • Home builders are “bumming out” too, lowest sentiment since 1991
  • Wall Street getting greasy with the subprime bust…
  • “What’s backing your money?” a reader from Canada wants to know

0 The Shanghai index has regained nearly all of the $400 billion it shed over the past month. It rallied to a 4,253 close today, up nearly 3% from yesterday and a breath away from another all-time high.

CSI 300

The CSI 300, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, hit a record high today, despite shedding 22% of its price only 20 days ago.

31 U.S. markets, along with gold and the dollar, were... well... boring yesterday. None showed more than a 0.5% gain or loss.

33 “Event-driven” and “short selling” funds both saw record investments in the first quarter of 2007. Over $10 billion rushed into this sector in the first few months of 2007, says a report published by Lipper. Surprise, surprise… the previous records for these two fund styles were set in the first quarter of 2000…
that other recent period of angst in the stock market.

45  U.S. home builder confidence fell to a 16-year low yesterday. The National Association of Home Builders index fell 2 points this month, to a score of 28. Translation: Less than a third of the nation’s builders think the market is doing all that well.

“All three components of the housing index fell in June,” reports MarketWatch. “The index for single-family home sales dropped from 31 to 29, also the lowest since 1991. The index for expected sales fell by 2 points, to 39, the lowest since September. The index for buyers' traffic dropped by 1 point, to 21, the lowest since January 1991.”

So… are we looking at a near bottom? Nope, says David Seiders, chief economist of the NAHB. “Home sales most likely will erode somewhat further in the months ahead and improvements in housing starts probably will not be recorded until early next year."

Next Year? Maybe… but history tells us otherwise. The last time the index tumbled this low, in 1991, it took two years to return to a new high, and 17 years before annual housing starts exceeded the 1986 peak.

142A Bear Stearns-sponsored hedge fund is revealing the true underbelly of the subprime bust. Last year, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund (doesn’t that just sound greasy?) borrowed $6 billion from various banks to begin investing in packaged securities comprised of subprime mortgage debt. After losing 23% in the first 10 months of the fund’s existence, investors are asking for their money back, and so are the banks. But as you might guess, there is no money to give back.

Yesterday, the fund’s three biggest lenders, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, all asked Bear Stearns to fork over more capital. But Bear Stearns, as it turns out, is not the only one behind the eight ball:

Mortgage

Nearly $600 billion of investors’ cash, buried in subprime loan securities, bought with highly leveraged dollars. Again, we cribbed this chart from The New York Times.

232  30 SPACs have gone public in the U.S. in 2007… on pace to nearly double last year. What’s a SPAC?

“It’s a blind pool… a blank check,” Chris Mayer tells us. A “special purpose acquisition company” is one that simply accrues a ton of investor cash (often without a specific plan) and goes public with the intention of merging with or acquiring a company with the money it raised.

“There is a boom in these things today,” says Chris. “So far this year, 30 SPACs have gone public in the U.S., raising some $3.5 billion. Last year, 40 SPACs sold their promise to investors and raised $3.4 billion. As recently as 2004, the amount of money put in SPACs was negligible.”

Mr. Mayer, a lover of all things old and reliable, pointed out this Charles Mackay gem from all the way back in 1841: Mackay saw a rush of bubble companies (that one day popped) that were formed for the purpose of “carrying out an undertaking of great advantage; but nobody knows what it is.”

“Funny how the old market seems to run in these well-worn grooves,” Chris mused.

317 A renewable energy source that’s already powering 25% of Iceland could be an “energy savior,” even for the U.S.

A 2006 report issued by MIT claims that it would be possible to generate 100 gigawatts of electricity by 2050 with a $1 billion investment in geothermal plants. That’s on par with the U.S.’s entire nuclear energy output.

Our Greg Guenthner is on the case. Geothermal, ancient Greek for “wicked hot,” harnesses the power of heat energy (typically steam) rising from the Earth’s core. Iceland, which is essentially one huge volcanic geyser, has been able to power a quarter of the nation with this energy. “A small-cap company will most likely lead the way,” says Gunner, “and I’m going to find it first.”   

4“FreedomBeat: Law gives cops ‘license’ to print money,” read the subject line of an e-mail sent from our liberty watchdog, Jim Amrhein. Think police departments aren't motivated by revenue? Check out this story from Mr. Amrhein:  

Houston municipal police have been using a loophole in the wording of a 2003 law intended to prohibit camera-proof coverings on vehicle license plates to write over 9,500 tickets so far in 2007 -- for harmless license plate brackets, like those with dealership logos, personal mottoes (“World's Greatest Dad!”) or sports team names on them.

According to a June 17 Houston Chronicle article, police have written over 2,200 of these $98 tickets since May 4 -- the date a new law was passed clarifying the 2003 ordinance's intent to pertain ONLY to brackets and screens that "significantly obscure" a license plate's vital data! But this new law (which Houston P.D. lobbying organizations SUPPORTED) isn't set to take effect until September... 

“Yes, you read that right,” our civil liberties guru wrote. “Houston cops are writing scads of citations (one officer wrote 30 in ONE DAY) for ‘breaking’ a law they know to be improperly applied -- and for which, come September, they'll no longer be able to write anywhere near as many tickets.” 

In 2007 alone, revenue from these frivolous citations has exceeded $930,000. As of June 1, Houston cops were still writing these bogus tickets at a rate of around 2,000 per month...

436“The danger that no one talks about,” wrote in a reader in reference to our coverage of the ethanol byproduct DGSS -- a new-age animal feed -- “is that all that waste of the corn is being manufactured to be sold as animal feed and contains the dangerous chemicals that have been used to process the fermentation of the corn. Once the animals eat such animal feed, the contamination will eventually find its ways into every American… causing cancer and God only knows what diseases. The price of this absurd policy of corn ethanol will be a horrible price to pay. What the United States must do is lift the absurd tax on sugar cane, import the sugar cane from Mexico and have excellent-quality ethanol.”

444“Regarding your corn report,” writes another reader, “I just returned from a trip traveling from Ohio to Kansas and back to Florida. Most of the corn I saw along I-70 was knee-high to shoulder high and very healthy looking, especially in Kansas, Missouri and southern Illinois.”

Hmmn… are we going to have to send the Maniac out for another look?

450“Of course, the Canadian dollar will equal the U.S. dollar,” writes yet another reader, this one from Canada. “The idiots in Ottawa sold all our gold, and our currency reserves are 95% U.S. dollars. That makes the loonie a proxy for the greenback. The only thing backing our money is your money. We are not really sure what is backing your money.”

Regards,
Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast


Agora Financial News

Sniffing Out the Meltdown by Bill Bonner | The Daily Reckoning 
"But every day brings another whiff in the air that the meltdown cannot be far off. Temperatures in the core reactor are rising."

No Confidence? by James Howard Kunstler | The Daily Reckoning Guest Essay
"The time before a presidential election is always a bit like a dog and pony show - but this time around, the theatrics seems to be starting early, and with a sense of urgency. James Howard Kunstler explores…"

This New Fuel Source is Paving the Way to an Oil Revolution
by
Christopher Hancock | The Penny Sleuth
"...They call the process CTL, or coal-to-liquid technology. It’s more commonly known as coal-to-oil technology. That’s right: Known as the Fischer-Tropsch process that Germany used during World War II to get oil from its massive coal reserves, CTL technology works by first converting coal to gas..."

Will China Dump U.S. Treasuries? by Mike Shedlock | Whiskey & Gunpowder
Greg’s Note: I called Mish today and asked him to write about the possibility of China dumping U.S. Treasuries. It seems to be on everyone’s mind. Is it going to happen? What are the implications? Is this what’s behind the current bond rout? Are these even the right questions? Mish takes a stab at answering all of those questions and more.

 
Agora Financial News Blogs

The Daily Reckoning’s Desidooru Saloon
The Desidooru Saloon is a blog from us editors over at The Daily Reckoning. Not being technically savvy, it has taken us a while to get into this crazy blogosphere. But we figure this is a good way to have a more open and organic dialogue that readers can be a part of. As for the name, it has a lot of meaning behind it. We know it's not the easiest name, but we think you'll appreciate the name after reading the history behind it… Also, if you're so inclined…sign up for the “always FREE” Daily Reckoning newsletter.


The 8th Annual AGORA Financial Investment Symposium
July 24-27th: The One Event You Can't Afford to Miss!

Rim Of Fire: AF Investment SymposiumOnce again, Agora Financial is proud to host what will surely be one of the most heavily anticipated financial conferences of the year. The Agora Financial Wealth Symposium will grace beautiful Vancouver, British Columbia for the fourth year in a row. This year's theme, Rim of Fire: Crisis and Opportunity in the New Asian Era, will explore the incredible profit prospects of the booming Asian continent. Learn More >>

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Free Resources
Wednesday June 20, 2007
Investors Load Up On Japan
The Algaemobile: An End To Our Oil Addiction?
Testing Raytheon's New Flameless Flame Thrower
Yen Carry Trade Explained
Tuesday June 19, 2007
Water Is For Fighting
Sniffing Out the Meltdown
No Confidence?
Monday June 18, 2007
The Earth's Mightiest Power Source
Rise of the Blind Pool
Japanese Currency Daytraders
Magic Beans?

Agora Financial's 5 Min. Forecast — part of a premium e-mail bundle called Agora Financial's Executive Series. Along with the Rude Awakening, the 5 Minute Forecast is sent FREE to all Agora Financial subscribers. Read Today's Issue Free >


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Media & Editors

Kevin Kerr On CNBC June 13, 2007Fri. June 22, 2007
7:05pm EST:

Kevin Kerr will be appearing on the Business News Network's new prime time program. The show will discuss the grain markets in a roundtable setting. Click Here for More Info >>

………………………………………………………………………………

Kevin Kerr on CNBCWed. June 20, 2007
6:16am:
Oil and gas prices are swinging wildly, with Kevin Kerr, Resource Trader Alert editor and CNBC's Carl Quintanilla.
Click Here to See the Interview >>

………………………………………………………………………………
Kevin Kerr on Market WatchWed. June 20, 2007:Golden opportunities!
Kevin Kerr says ETFs are one way to play natural resources in Eastern Europe. Click Here To Watch the Video >>
………………………………………………………………………………

Kevin Kerr, Maniac TraderREVEALED AT LAST:
The Inside Secrets of One of the World's Most Exclusive Moneymaking Clubs
 
Kevin Kerr wants to share the inner workings of this elite group with you. With his help, you have a chance to turn everyday events into cold, hard cash... just like the pros do! Find Out More >>


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Research Tools

Investing In Water Report:
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Housing Bubble Report:
What the Numbers Tell UsHousing Bubble

Recent existing home sales data confirm the fact that the housing boom-boom is going bust-bust. Sales of existing homes fell 11.2% from a year earlier, while the absolute number of homes for sale jumped to a new record. Housing Bubble Report >>


Editor Spotlight
Bill Bonner
Addison Wiggin
Eric Fry
Dan Amoss
Kevin Kerr
Craig Walters
Greg Guenthner
Chuck Butler
Kate Incontrera
Chris Mayer
Steve Sarnoff

Mogambo Guru
Peronet Despeigne
Christopher Hancock
Dr. Richebächer
Jonathan Kolber
Byron King
Jim Amrhein
Mike Shedlock
Greg Grillot
Ian Mathias

Doug Casey
View All >>


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